Table 1 Scenario development

1

Orientation towards ‘real’ problems

Adapted by merging two scenarios from the University of Edinburgh (2022):

Extinction-era universities:

“Climate disaster is well underway, resulting in global food and water insecurity, uprisings and mass movements of people. Universities lead the global response. They no longer compete for funding or prestige, but work through global research networks focused on coordinated responses to planetary crises”

Justice-driven innovation:

“Unrest arising from acute societal division and unequal access to wealth prompts radical political change, and pressure to develop new economic, social and governance models

Universities’ ‘third mission’—to create and share knowledge to resolve societal challenges—becomes their first mission. In the large research-intensive universities, disciplinary structures give way to radical transdisciplinarity focused on specific social challenge areas: poverty, climate, equality, governance and justice.”

We have moderated and adapted these two scenarios inspired by a Danish tradition for problem-based universities. Especially Roskilde University and Aalborg University

Education increasingly focuses on global crises and sustainable behaviour, and teaching is aimed at acting on and solving ‘real’ problems

2

AI-supported teaching

Based on the original scenario

AI Academy:

“AI is working across massive, linked databases do all the heavy lifting of academic work (…). Conventional student assignments are no longer required, as AI-enabled analysis of historic, behavioural and neuro data provides an instant categorization of their capabilities” (University of Edinburgh, 2022)

Tasks related to preparing and delivering teaching are increasingly automated and supported by artificial intelligence (AI)

3

‘On demand’ education

Based on the original scenario

The universal university:

“Anyone anywhere can participate in university as new routes to access are mandated by governments across all countries” (University of Edinburgh, 2022)

Universities will have fewer master’s degree students and instead offer intensive and focused courses that can be taken throughout people’s working lives

4

Commodification of education

The original scenario Extreme unbundling is divided into two concerns, Commodification and Modularisation. We have made one prompt based on the first half of the original scenario:

“Teaching is sold through a hyper- fragmented market of education services, and higher education is re- framed as ‘super-skilling’” (University of Edinburgh, 2022)

Education will become a commodity with universities competing against private education providers

5

Modularisation of education

and one prompt following the second half of the Extreme unbundling scenario:

“People learn through life, accumulating various forms of micro-credit in a portfolio validated through reputation management systems and performance analytics” (University of Edinburgh, 2022)

The reason for considering these as two different questions in a Danish context is that while the governmentally driven model for university funding is unchallenged – there is a large push for providing lifelong learning and modularisation

The educational structure shifts from being based on curricula and defined degree programmes to modules that each student can combine as they see fit

6

Integration of data science

Integrating data science into the disciplines is very much in line with the strategic ambitions of the University of Copenhagen, but it also frames the future in terms of a natural continuation of the existing division in disciplinary fields. In this sense, it can be seen as a less radical version of the scenario Return to the ivory tower (University of Edinburgh, 2022)

Data science is integrated in other disciplines

7

Development of critical skills

Based on the original scenario The university of ennui:

“(…) there is massively increased demand for higher education that advances creative, critical, philosophical and social skills” (University of Edinburgh, 2022)

Degree programmes increasingly focus on developing students' creativity, problem-solving skills and critical sense

8

Datafication of learning

Based on the original scenario Enhanced enhancement:

“Enhanced campuses incorporating routine use of facial, engagement and emotion recognition technologies are mainstream across all education sectors” (University of Edinburgh, 2022)

Students’ use of digital tools and platforms generates data that teaching staff use for planning, assessing and supervising